The science is solid. But fear? Fear is powerful.
Fear has a big impact on our decisions. It motivates what we do—and what we avoid. And when it comes to vaccines, fear can sometimes cloud our understanding of what’s actually risky (vaccine-preventable diseases) and what’s not (vaccination).
We’re not great at judging risk. And that’s okay.
Most of us struggle to accurately assess risk. It’s human. We tend to overestimate rare, dramatic events (like a plane crash or a rare vaccine reaction) and underestimate everyday risks (like getting in a car accident or catching a contagious illness).
Risk perception is influenced by all kinds of things—news headlines, our emotions, past experiences, even our personalities. Just look at the data: many people fear a terrorist attack more than a traffic accident, even though traffic accidents are far more common and dangerous.
Why we misjudge risk
A lot of things influence how risky something feels, even if the numbers say otherwise. Here’s what plays into that:
Cognitive Factors
How serious something seems, how much attention it gets in the media, and whether we feel in control of the outcome.
Emotional Factors
Our fears, gut feelings, and even our mood.
Contextual Factors
How the information is presented, and where we’re getting it from.
Cognitive Factors
Our past experiences, personality traits, and background.
So how does this relate to vaccines?
When people are hesitant about vaccines, risk perception is often at play. The problem is, many people overestimate the risk of the vaccine, and underestimate the risk of the disease it prevents.
Let’s take a real-world example:
- The risk of developing a blood clot from the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine is about 0.0000088%. That’s less likely than getting hit by a falling plane part while sitting at home.
- The risk of developing a blood clot from severe COVID-19? 31%. That’s 340,000 out of every 1.1 million people who get really sick.
THE TRUTH?
The far greater risk is with the disease—not the vaccine.
How to help people better understand risk
When you’re talking with someone who’s hesitant about vaccines, here are three powerful strategies:
Compare the risks in a relatable way
Put the vaccine risk into perspective. “The chance of a severe vaccine reaction is one in a million. That’s much lower than the one in three thousand chance of being struck by lightning.” “If you’re not worried about lightning, maybe the vaccine risk doesn’t need to feel scary either.”
Lay out the real risk of vaccinating vs. not vaccinating
Most people don’t realize how serious the diseases and their complications are. “Nine out of ten unvaccinated people exposed to measles will get sick. 1 in 1,000 will develop brain swelling. But only 1 in a million will have a serious vaccine side effect.” The benefits of vaccines always outweigh the risks. That’s built into the vaccine approval process.
Reframe the fear
People fear what feels unknown. But in truth, vaccines are deeply researched—more than 100 years of data and billions of doses that have been given safely. “I understand being nervous about vaccine side effects—I’ve had that fear, too. But what I’m really worried about is the disease itself.” “Long COVID is still being studied, but it’s already linked to brain changes, heart issues, and more. That’s what scares me.”
Fear the disease, not the vaccine
- The risk of a serious vaccine reaction? 1 in 1 million.
- The risk of dying from tetanus if unvaccinated? 30%.
If 1 million unvaccinated people got tetanus, 300,000 would die.
If 1 million people got the tetanus vaccine, just one might have a serious reaction.
1 in one million
risk of a serious vaccine reaction
CHANCE IN ONE MILLION OF...
9,345
dying from a car accident
8,248
dying from sunstroke
2,535
dying from choking on food
7
dying from a lightening strike
The science is settled. Really.
Don’t let misinformation muddy the waters. Here’s what’s true:
- Vaccines have been researched for more than a century
- Thousands of studies involving millions of people support vaccine safety
- Millions and millions of children have safely received vaccines
- Vaccines prevent deadly diseases—and save lives
What’s still uncertain?
The long-term effects of some emerging diseases, like COVID-19. A year into the pandemic, researchers were uncovering alarming findings—for example, around one in three people who recovered from COVID experienced some sort of brain injury. That’s why it’s so important to protect ourselves from the virus. Vaccines, which are thoroughly studied and tested, offer a proven way to help prevent these potentially serious disease outcomes.
STILL WORRIED?
That’s okay. The key is helping people feel safe enough to learn more. Risk perception is about feelings as much as facts—so let’s speak to both.
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